Obama

[JVO]

This is a BIG MISTAKE:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070208/ap_on_el_pr/on_the2008_trail

The biggest thing working against Obama is that nobody knows who he is. Right now he is just a novelty. I certainly understand the importance of his Senate duties, but if they are going to stand in the way of Nationally televised debates, he either needs to resign from the Senate or concentrate solely on the Senate. He is never going to catch Sen. Clinton if he doesn't promote his ideas nationally.

[Lori Burger]

How does Clinton have ANY support???? She talks around questions as opposed to answering them, and is as calculated and manipulative as they come. Are strategy, money, and marketing all is takes to become a president, or at least, the democratic nominee? She puts off a crappy vibe: I'd never vote for her.

As far as Obama is concerned, I like what I see (which, so far, hasn't been too much). I don't know if he could beat Guliani or McCain, though.

[mrjohnchimpo]

i think obama thinks he's a slam dunk to at least get the dem nom for presidency.

[JVO]

i think obama thinks he's a slam dunk to at least get the dem nom for presidency.

You may be right, but if he thinks that way he is sorely mistaken. I just saw a poll a couple of days ago that showed that there is not a single group of people where Obama would have a majority. With African American's only 22% would vote for Obama, compared to 68% for Clinton. Interestingly, the news story also reported that Obama has virtually no popularity with Black voters. Apparently the African American community (according to this report) does not believe that Obama is a fair representative of African Americans in the United States.

I am sure in Illinois and Missouri, Obama's popularity is very high, but people in Nevada don't have the first damned clue what he is all about.

(BTW, Lori, I could not agree with you more. This same report that I mentioned above shows that, although women and African Americans don't trust Sen. Clinton, they LOVE Pres. Clinton sssoooo much that they are willing to give her the benefit of the doubt just so they can get their beloved Bubba back.)

[thatsmyDJ]

Obama is currently sitting in a decent position. The worst press about him deals with the lack of experience and his cigarette usage. If cigarettes are the worst issue working against him, especially since he has admited to using blow and weed, he can definately carry California. Right now he doesn't have to be the front runner in the race, he just has to stay close. Besides, being the front runner can be a curse at times. He is viewed as a decent candidate that may hold strong through the primaries and can at least make a bid as the vice presidential candidate. Edwards should compete well, but Hillary should start preparing her speech to deliver on "The View" that explains why she wasn't nominated. In the north voters put "Run Hillary" stickers on the back bumpers of their cars, and everywhere else they put them on the front. Regardless, none of the candidates will share my views as an average tax paying citizen.

[Lori Burger]

Based on what I can tell, Hillary is a dishonest, manipulative person. If someone like her is elected into office, it'll be a sad, sad day for the US. Perhaps it won't be quite as sad as when W was elected in for the second time, but sad nonetheless.

I still believe in Obama. Let's hope that there are at least one or two decent candidates out there!

[slam]

I just saw a poll a couple of days ago that showed that there is not a single group of people where Obama would have a majority.

Luckily for Obama, we have a good year before the nominee is decided. Polls right now are next to useless... I mean, the man just officially announced two days ago!

Give the rest of the country a chance to hear him speak, and I think those polls will change quite soon.

[bubz_bluez]

if the democrats are going to have a reasonable chance they run john edwards

obama will not win if hes faced agaist any of the republican nominies

think what you will

im pulling for john edwards i think hes got a better chance


bubz

[Ag Au]

of course i keep reading about the candidates, but isn't anyone else the least bit distressed over the fact that we are having this discussion a good year in advance? it bothers me that SOO much press is given to talking about these people as if they are going to take office tomorrow, when the guy who is in there right now is a total fuck up. yes, we know he is, but i can't help but feel like i'm gonna get sideswiped again and again and again whenever i divert my thoughts for just a second.... maybe it is just nerves about iran, but this diversion tactic feels creepy. yes, it is good to have such a very thorough understanding of the candidates views, but at what expense?

[ElRiche]

Further, in a sense, to Ag Au's creepy feeling about things, why do we suppose that the Australian PM decided to take a swipe at Obama about his suggestion that American troops should be withdrawn from Iraq? American politicos have been harping on this issue for some time, but only now does the Australian PM decide to cast a vote (an early vote) on the issue, and with respect to the position of a single US Senator - as though his position was markedly different from any number of other liberal congresspeople on this point. As Captian Hook would say, "bad form."

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2868323

[JVO]

The reason why the polls are important now, is because in order to run an election you must be able to raise money. People are not going to be willing to donate large amounts of money to candidates who aren't in the running. Typically, most donations are already received before the New Hampshire Primary. Therefore, candidates must put themself in a very strong position to ensure donors that they have a legitimate chance of winning. I agree there is still plenty of time for a change in the numbers, but there is not plenty of time when it comes to campaign contributions. Also the Democratic party will start to back out on Obama as far as volunteers, election captains, and such if he is unable to prove that he can give Hillary a run for her money.
Also, keep in mind, Hillary is a money making machine. Even if things work out perfectly, Obama is not going to be able to raise nearly as much money as Hillary.

[slam]

The reason why the polls are important now, is because in order to run an election you must be able to raise money.

ahhh, true true. i hope obama can lure away some of hillary's financial backers.

[poofdogg]

Obama!!!!!!!

[Soul Queen]

I predict Obama will go the way of Howard Dean.

The media are already picking on him with his crazy apology of wasted soldier's lives.

I hope I'm wrong.

The media always focuses on one candidate before the major race. Then it seems they pick them to death, then leave the corpse by the convention center.

I fear Obama may be way too popular too soon.

[Hans Brix]

I think Obama is a much smarter man, better public speaker, and way more charismatic than Howard Dean ever was. I don't think he'll suffer the same fate.

[oldmanindaclub]

Obama has little-to-no chance, at least for Prez (maybe Veep)... case in point, my wife's aunt recently said "I'd never vote for somebody named Obama"

now as ridiculous and ignorant as that is (and fuckin-a it IS), I bet there are a LOT of people out there who usually would vote Dem that think this way (big Labor comes to mind)

Hillary-- forget it. Even if she wins the nomination, Giuliani will destroy her... not that I want that, but it would better than any of the other Republicans out there... too many Hilary-Haters out there (even among Dems)

Edwards?? He was a Senator how many years ago?? Can't see it.

Al Gore... I like him. Saw his movie recently and was most impressed. If he decides to run then it will really be interesting...

Bill Richardson... the man. I plan on campaigning for him here. He has a solid chance if the above four cancel each other out

Biden... I also like him, but he already fucked up bad

Dodd... (snooooooooze)

Kucinich... gotta love Kucinich. Our first Hobbit President. I know that's mean... actually I would love it if he were President, plus he dilutes the Nader impact

Clark... good Veep choice

Vilsack... sounds too much like Ball-Sack. Cannot win due to the 'Dukakis effect' (i.e. name is too weird)

[JVO]

Obama has little-to-no chance, at least for Prez (maybe Veep)... case in point, my wife's aunt recently said "I'd never vote for somebody named Obama"



I was just about to post the same exact thing! I went to a family reunion of sorts yesterday and of course there was a major discussion of politics. All of the Republicans are going to vote for McCain. All of the Democrats don't know what they are going to do. I do know that every single democrat in my family said that there was no way they were voting for somebody with close family times to Islam and whose middle name was Hussein. I argued with them until I was blue in the face, but there is no way they are budging. I told them all that they were idiots and that they were not using fair reasoning, but they all looked at me like I was a moron and said that I have always been infatuated with Presidential candidates who are unqualified and have no chance of winning (which is true). Anyway that discussion really opened my eyes. I think, unless the dems can come up with a third viable option (maybe Richardson); they are going to be in real trouble. I don't think Obama or Clinton have a very good chance of winning a general election.

Also where is Obama? CSPAN is constantly showing Sen Clinton and all of the Rep candidates as they travel through Iowa and New Hampshire (BTW John McCain does not look so good physically...I think that may be a real problem) but I have yet to see Obama on there. He needs to be campaigning like a sumbitch. He should do nothing but spend the next three months in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nobody knows anything about him except that he has a crazy Muslim name that sound like two of our arch enemies and that he is completely underqualifed. He needs to get as much exposure as possible so that when people think of him, the first thing they think of is not his crazy name.

[andikay]

Hi oldman!:wave:

Good thing oldman is back on the board JVO! I am looking forward to reading your combined political discourse.

[duckplucker]

what are the dems thinking?


thier two top political candidates are a woman and a black man.

NEWS FLASH: there has never been an american president that is either black or female!

do you really want to risk the white house on either of these long shots?

i think clinton and Oh-bama will be forgotten, unfortunatly. i think either would be great!!

if the dems want to win, it has to be a southern democrat.

edwards or gore!!!

[andikay]

what are the dems thinking?...
do you really want to risk the white house on either of these long shots?...
if the dems want to win, it has to be a southern democrat.

edwards or gore!!!

These thoughts have crossed my mind as well...but Edwards? *yawn*

[oldmanindaclub]

Dems need to look West. If the Dems blow it in '08 on Hillary or Obama, they will need to concentrate on someone from a Prarie/Mountain state, as they all seem to be electing Democratic Governors (NEW MEXICO. MONTANA. KANSAS! OKLAFUCKINGHOMA!! WYOMING!!!???)

If Old Man McCain wins in '08 (he disgusts me like a stale cigarette now, smoldering in bongwater), he will fuck up this war worse than W... more troops?? More troops??? I can't see him, being 150 years old and all, running for a second term when he would be past 80... McCain will be probably pick either a far left GOP (Giuliani) for Veep or a far right GOP (Huck-a-back), neither of which could win a true general election in '12.

Enter Montana Governor Schweiker of Montana. This dude fucking rules. Or, even better, Bill Richardson of NM (yes, I hope he wins in 2008, but I'm not holding my breath since the primary system is stacked against moderate Dems). Regardless if Dems win in '08 or not, they'll DEFINITELY win in '12.

Of course, 2012 (specifically my parents 50th wedding anniversary, December 21st) is the end of the Mayan Long Count, so we're all doomed anyway.

Al Gore no longer counts as a Southern Dem. And, yes, ANDIKAY, my Princess Leia of BTP, Edwards is... a... big.... YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWN

I've got to stop drinking before I post. :drinkwine:

[Soul Queen]

The Dem's SHOULD NOT blow it in 08. Its rather depressing to think it may be all over and to look forward to 2012!

We definately need more selections for candidates.

[JVO]

Dems need to look West. If the Dems blow it in '08 on Hillary or Obama, they will need to concentrate on someone from a Prarie/Mountain state, as they all seem to be electing Democratic Governors (NEW MEXICO. MONTANA. KANSAS! OKLAFUCKINGHOMA!! WYOMING!!!???)

:drinkwine:

I tend to think the same thing. The Dems need a solid candidate from the mid west (Illinois doesn't count as midwest). Unfortunately I don't think there are any good options.

I think the Dems still have a chance. Neither McCain nor Rudy are going to invigorate the hard core conservatives in the same way that Bush did. Unless they pick a hard line conservative as a running mate (my bet would be Newt) they are going to have problems getting their base to vote. I also dont think that Rudy or McCain are all that appealing to the southern states. I just don't see Republicans in Alabama voting for a former NYC mayor or a Senator from Arizona. The reason why Republicans are successful at National elections is because they are much better at getting their supporters to actually vote. There are a lot of hard line Democrats who simply don't vote. The same can't be said for Republicans, although that my be the case if Rudy or McCain are the nominees.


I think something that both parties need to remember is that Presidental elections are decided by the south. If you can't win Texas or Florida, you have no chance of winning the Presidency. I honestly have a hard time seeing either of these states voting for Sen Clinton or Sen Obama.

John Edwards is a complete useless tool who couldn't even carry his own state in the last election. I think it is starting to look like the Dems better start beggin Gore to run. I doubt he would run against Hillary though.

[oldmanindaclub]

I think something that both parties need to remember is that Presidental elections are decided by the south. If you can't win Texas or Florida, you have no chance of winning the Presidency. I honestly have a hard time seeing either of these states voting for Sen Clinton or Sen Obama.



ahh JVO better check this recent electoral map:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1992-Large.png

although, it does illustrate your point about southern politicians, so touche

[JVO]

ahh JVO better check this recent electoral map:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1992-Large.png

although, it does illustrate your point about southern politicians, so touche

That was from 1992 (Pres. Clinton was the last Dem to be able to carry Texas and Florida and that is why he won.)

Check out the maps for 2004: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:US_presidential_election_2004_map.svg


And 2000: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege2000-Large.png

Unless a Democratic nominee can carry some of the southern and midwestern states they don't have a chance. At this point I am not sure if Clinton or Obama will be able to do that.

[andikay]

I wish Gore would run, because I don't think any of the current candidates can win (although I do like some of them).

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/57/221911977_af43126a85_m.jpg

I've got a thermal detonator!

[oldmanindaclub]

That was from 1992 (Pres. Clinton was the last Dem to be able to carry Texas and Florida and that is why he won.)


look again JVO... BUSH Sr. won those states. They just have the colors reversed. That was the point I was making is that you CAN win the presidency without these two states.

[thatsmyDJ]

I'll throw my two cents out, if its even worth that much. If the democrats are going to succeed in '08, they need a candidate that can get votes where Gore and Kerry failed. Edwards seems to be the front runner at this point from some experts. Even Gore carried the popular vote in '00. However, the press has decided that the Hilary vs. Obama match-up is much more newsworthy. If the democrats have problems developing a candidate going foward, it should be blamed on the AP.

[JVO]

look again JVO... BUSH Sr. won those states. They just have the colors reversed. That was the point I was making is that you CAN win the presidency without these two states.


OOOPs! You are right. The switching of the colors totally screwed me up.

[oldmanindaclub]

He must have read my 'ball-sack' post... :D

actually its all about money, he says

too bad... I saw him on the Daily Show and he seemed like a stand-up guy... unfortunately, only watchers of the Daily Show and residents of Iowa probably even knew who he was

[JVO]

This really surprises me, and makes me very, very happy:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070404/ap_on_el_pr/obama_money

[slam]

This really surprises me, and makes me very, very happy:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070404/ap_on_el_pr/obama_money

that's completely awesome.

OBAMA4LIFE!

[thatsmyDJ]

Obama is currently sitting in a decent position. Besides, being the front runner can be a curse at times. He is viewed as a decent candidate that may hold strong through the primaries and can at least make a bid as the vice presidential candidate.

Obama is still sitting in a decent spot. He is in a good spot being second to Hilary in most popular polls. And at www.moveon.org he is polling as first, with Edwards as a close second. This could benefit him because "the leader" pressure is on Hilary, even though these opinions are coming from individuals that may not make it to the polls. The movon.org opinion may be a better representation of actual voters.

On a side note, the press hasen't spoke much about the primaries. The inital primary states may be leaning toward Edwards. This could generate some interesting days of press.

[thatsmyDJ]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TJb-qUaSa38

Thats what I can must see TV NBC.