Democrat's Debate

[JVO]

Did anybody see this last night? I thought the format was the best so far. The candidates were actually allowed to give more then a snippet from their stump speeches. I also thought Lady Roboto gave a great performance. She was smart and on top of the issues per usual, but this time she seemed much friendlier and less robotic. Maybe her handlers warm her up after seeing the last debates.

I think that I would really like Edwards (he is the most open about being liberal which I admire), but he is just such a smarmy schmooze. Like five times during the debate he paid his competitors back handed compliments. It started to really bug me.

Obama did nothing to set himself apart, but he also didn't do anything to screw himself up, which at this point is all that matters.

CNN had a focus group of Democrats on after and not a single one of them said they would vote for Al Gore if he decided to run. That kinda surprised me.

Anyway if anybody else watched it, I would be interested in hearing your impressions.

[slam]

i finally saw it. edwards comes off as a total douche. i still like obama, but his shine is wearing off a bit. he's still my pick, but i think he's playing it smart by just coasting right now. he can really only harm himself at this point. let the lower contenders duke it out for now.

hillary is starting to come across as more presidential. i just really hope she doesn't get the nomination! come on, dems, you know the republicans will brutalize her!

richardson impresses me more and more every time i hear him. he's certainly the most qualified person up there, but he just doesn't have the charisma.

the republican debate was pretty fun too. they're all still a bunch of jokers, though. go ron paul!

[JVO]

I love Bill Richardson also. I may even put him above Obama, except for the fact that there is no way he is going to get the nomination. He is way too conservative to get the nomination. He is the most qualified of the bunch, even more than Biden and Dodd.

Obama is still my man though, but unfortunately it is going to be Clinton who gets the nomination. At this point I would say there is a 90% chance she is the nominee. Maybe she will pick Richardson for VP (although I doubt he would accept). I also think that she is the candidate who has the best chance to beat the Republicans in the General.

The Republicans are really going through an identity crisis. None of the big three are conservative enough for the Republicans. Even the far right talking heads are having a real problem finding somebody to endorse who actually has a chance of winning. If Thompson enters the race, I really think he will jet up to the top. Not sure what will happen once the media machine goes to town on him though.

I think the Republican race is going to be far more interesting because it is so unpredictable. I would really have a very difficult time trying to handicap who will win. At this point, I would say any one of 5 different people has a chance. I personally think that Mitt Romney would be a great choice, but he has the same flip flopping problem that Kerry had in the last election, and voters hate flip floppers, it is very unPresidential.

I will make a bold prediction: If Rudi McRomney wins the nomination, regardless of which of the three wins, they will offer the VP to Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. Not sure he will take it, but he would be the perfect addition to recapture some of the southern and Christian voters who otherwise would not be too motivated to vote. Huckabee is a Minister. By all accounts he is a good and decent man who has thrived in Arkansas despite the fact that he is very conservative. He will also be a nod to Pro Lifers that they will not be forgotten once Supreme Court nominations come up. (This has the potential of being just like the West Wing election…Very liberal Republican from a huge democratic state gets nomination and tries to convince right wingers to vote for him by offering nomination to a beloved minister and politician).

[JVO]

Obama is still my man though, but unfortunately it is going to be Clinton who gets the nomination.


Further evidence of the above: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070801/us_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc

Sen. Clinton has a 21 point advantage over Obama and it keeps widening.

[slam]

Sen. Clinton has a 21 point advantage over Obama and it keeps widening.

is it just me, or isn't it kind of early to be worrying about those numbers? clinton has like a 30-40 point lead in name recognition alone still (obama who?)

i think once obama starts dropping some of his insane cash on ads, he'll shoot up quite quickly.

[JVO]

Since many of the primaries have moved up to be included in Super Tuesday, they really aren't as far away as you might think.

As you know Slam, I called Sen. Clinton the winner months ago, and her performance in the debates has just solidified my prediction. The rest are just formalities. The real fun is going to watching the Republicans fight it out. They have 3, possibly 4, candidates all within 10 points of one another.

If Obama is behind by more than 20 points (which I think he will be) before the New Hampshire primary, Obama has NO chance of catching up. Sen. Clinton is simply too smart and too experienced to make any of the kind of mistakes that would cost her that many points. Like I said before, the entire Right Wing media is completely ignoring every single candidate except for Sen. Clinton which I think is a pretty good indication that they don't foresee anybody else being a factor. I think their belief is; "Why waste time banging on Obama, if he is not going to get the nomination?"

I personally agree with you Slam, it is way too early, but historically if a front runner doesn't have anybody within single digits of them prior to New Hampshire, you can pretty much guarantee he/she is a lock for the nomination.

I seriously doubt that Obama had any reasonable expectations of winning the nomination from the start. For Obama, this is just a practice run for the next time he has a chance of running. After all, with the exception of Thompson (who still hasn't public ally announced yet) he is probably the least experienced of all of the legitimate candidate on either side.

Now my only question is if Sen. Clinton will ask him to be her running mate. I personally think it would be a mistake, but I certainly wouldn't mind voting for that ticket.

[slam]

If Obama is behind by more than 20 points (which I think he will be) before the New Hampshire primary, Obama has NO chance of catching up.

in NH, they're polling dead even: http://www.transworldnews.com/NewsStory.aspx?storyid=19804&ret=Default.aspx

i understand what you're saying, jvo, but we're still over half a year from deciding this. and obama has an unprecedented amount of money to spend. like i said, his name recognition is still low, but that will quickly change.

once some of these no-hope candidates start dropping out, and we start having debates among obama, clinton, and edwards, i believe that people will start leaning away from clinton. she's done surprisingly well in the debates so far, but i believe the format favors her. obama is a great speaker, but not well known for brevity.

[JVO]

I hope you are right.