the state of the race

[slam]

alright, we've been slacking on our presidential campaign coverage around here.

i thought that this ny times op ed pretty well summarized the last few weeks of the campaign:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/opinion/27rich.html?_r=3&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

it seems that lately obama can do no wrong. policies he's been supporting for months now (especially those dealing with the Wars on Terror) are now being embraced by both McCain, and surprisingly, Bush. his tour abroad seemed an overwhelming success, with many high level meetings, an incredible turnout of 200,000+ people in Berlin, and none of the major gaffe's that fox news was praying for.

mccain, meanwhile, seems more and more like a bumbling buffoon. he frequently screws up major facts (screw ups that, if obama uttered, would be repeated ad nauseum by the politirazzi). and his incessant whining about the media coverage of obama's unprecedented trip abroad is completely unbecoming to a presidential candidate.

what say ye all? does anyone really believe that debates are going to somehow save mccain? other than obama being caught snorting coke off a male hooker's ass, how can mccain pull this off?

[larryhead]

"Sometimes it's hard to tell if Barack Obama is running for president of the United States or Mr. Universe."

-Glenn Beck

[JVO]

I still think that Obama can definitely lose, although I was very happy with his Middle East trip. I don’t really understand why he went to Europe and think the time could have been better spent if he had stayed in the Middle East a little longer. It was also a mistake that Obama didn’t spend more time with the troops, both in Iraq and in Germany. Sure it was cool to see him give that speech in Berlin and to see the joint press conference with the French President, but I think that it did very little to help him in the US, and might even have hurt him a little. I also think that it was very smart for him to ignore the Palestinians during his trip to Israel. In some ways it goes against what he is about, but still it is a very good way of competing for Moderate Jewish votes which are going to be vital to winning the election. I really like how the Obama campaign understands that every speech he gives is not just for the people in attendance, but more importantly it is for the Undecided voters. He did it with the Black Father’s stink speech, and also in Germany when he condemned the Germans for being unwilling to carry their load in Afghanistan and for not doing enough to combat terrorism.

The problem is that none of this matters a damn because Obama’s polling numbers are remaining unchanged. The poll of polls that I saw last night only has Obama up by 3 points, and that number has been pretty steady for the last few weeks. Dick Morris, the ultimate Political Whore, made an excellent point the other day. He said that although Obama has achieved the most enthusiastic following since Reagan, he has one major problem: A very low ceiling. No matter what Obama does, it seems that it is impossible for him to get over 49% of the vote. For any number of reasons 50% of the population just seems unwilling to vote for Obama no matter what. Something else that Morris said that I totally agree with is that this election is going to have nothing to do with John McCain. Everybody knows McCain, everybody knows what a McCain Presidency would be like, and nobody cares about the little mistakes and senior moments that McCain is going to make (by nobody he/I mean undecided voter, who at this point are the only demographic that matter). With Obama, because we know so little about him, because he seems to be shifting his policies, because he has never had a credible job in his entire adult life, and because of the normal skepticism about somebody so young who looks different from most Americans, every tiny thing that he says and does is going to be scrutinized because the entire election is nothing but a referendum on him personally. I think that plays into his favor, but time will tell if that is true or not.

Really I think none of this matters. The entire election is going to come down to the debates. (It sounds like Slam disagrees with this). I watched Obama on Meet the Press yesterday, and you can tell that Obama wants no part of debating John McCain. Every time Brokaw asked about adding additional town hall debates Obama immediately said no way in his best evasive political speak. If I were an advisor to John McCain I would tell him that he needs to keep hammering on the fact that Barack Obama is afraid to debate him. And then in all three of the scheduled debates, McCain needs to lean on Obama has hard as he can. Call him inexperienced, call him elitist, call him naïve, call him dangerous, call him confused, call him a cult of personality with no substance, challenge him to show that he actually knows what he is talking out, call him out for not admitting that the surge has worked because he knows it will hurt him politically, call out the fact that the media has been completely unfair in their coverage and that their unbridled devotion to Obama is very dangerous and is very similar to the love the media showed for Pres Bush after 9/11 and how because of this love, they stood by while an American President lied to the United Nations and to the American People, while the media only helped to perpetuate this pack of lies. The media is more in the bag for Obama then they have ever been for a candidate in the history of American Politics and this creates major dangers if Obama were to take office, and if anybody doubts this just ask Hillary Clinton what she thinks about the subject. The media is the voice of elitist America and they know/care very little about the lives or regular Americans. The only weakness I have ever seen from Obama, is that he is very easy to rattle when an opponent, or better yet a moderator, challenges him in debates. The ABC debate with Hillary Clinton was the perfect example of that. When Obama faced a forum that was unfriendly to him, and when Hillary decided to take the gloves off and pound on him, Obama looked terrible. He stumbled and bumbled and totally did not look at all comfortable. It was the only time he looked inexperienced. That is exactly what McCain needs to do at the debates. He needs to turn into a prickish old white man and attack Obama with everything he has. McCain won’t win any votes doing this, but Obama may lose votes and that is exactly what McCain needs to win. Also, one of the great things about America is that we love underdogs. For much of this election cycle Obama has been seen as the underdog and that is why he has made such a great story for the press. If McCain can somehow make him self the underdog, who not only has to fight Barack Obama, but also virtually the entire American Press Corp, it may do a lot to pick up some more moderate voters, evangelicals, and old timers. McCain needs to challenge voters to not let this election be decided by media bigwigs in New York City and Washington D.C. who know nothing about the difficulties facing every day American. True this would be a pretty interesting tack to take, but I think it would be effective because for the most part, it is completely true.


I am also very concerned about the Wilder effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilder_effect) I think we saw that this is in full effect during the Democratic primaries particularly in states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Missouri. If Obama goes into the General leading by less than 5% I predict that he will actually lose the election. In order to have a comfortable enough margin to overcome the Wilder effect, Obama needs to be leading by at least 7% of the vote imo.

I am still uncomfortable with the fact that Obama’s two leading voter basis’ are young people and African Americans, the two least reliable voters groups in American politics. Like I said before, McCain doesn’t have need to win over these two groups (mostly because that would be impossible) but if he can bloody Obama up enough to discourage people from those groups from voting, he may have a chance. Right now Obama seems clean and righteous, but if McCain can make him squirm and evade and counterattack, it will hurt him with these two already unreliable voter groups.

Finally I would have McCain pick Lieberman to be his running mate. McCain needs to do something to generate a little buzz for himself and selecting an Independent as a running mate would certainly do this. I think it is more realistic that McCain pick Romney, Ridge or the Gov. of Minnesota which would all be safe picks. I am sticking with my guns on Biden for Obama. I still also think that Clinton would virtually guarantee victory for Obama as a running mate, but I doubt that he will do that, and I certainly don’t blame him for that.

Anyway there are my two cents.

[zero2056]

I've been slacking on my Presidential race watching.

I'm worn out and taking a break. The only thing that I've seen of note is how much both candidates have been flip flopping on issues that they formally backed to get their party nomination. boring **snore**. They're politicians. Of course they lied and are going to change positions to better position themselves in the general.

Hopefully, they'll start beating the shit out of each other here in the next few months. I'm out of the coverage til they at least name a VP.

[slam]

The problem is that none of this matters a damn because Obama’s polling numbers are remaining unchanged.

it's early yet. his trip etc wasn't about immediate polling numbers. it was about removing the ability for mccain to attack him on foreign policy later in the race. obama was merely laying foundations, and demonstrating his ability to deal with foreign leaders. his ability to 'act presidential'. maliki's endorsement of 'Obama's plan' for withdrawal knocked the wind out of mccain, bush, and the others supporting endless war.

The entire election is going to come down to the debates. (It sounds like Slam disagrees with this).

i don't disagree that debates will be important. i disagree that mccain will be able to compete against obama. obama is charismatic, well versed on the issues, and witty. mccain can't seem to keep his foot out of his mouth. watch any interview with him lately. he forgets shit (anbar provice was solved because of the surge?), makes shit up (an iraq/pakistan border?) or completely skirts the issue in the most disingenious way possible with a shit eating smirk on his face. i've said it before and i'll say it again: obama didn't fare as well as some might hope against a field of great debaters in the democratic primaries, but mccain barely skirted through against a bunch of fools in the republican ones.

obama doesn't want to have more debates against mccain because he doesn't want to give mccain more press coverage. people love obama. they flock in droves to see him speak. why share that limelight with mccain? why draw an extra 30,000 people to see his opponent?

The media is more in the bag for Obama then they have ever been for a candidate in the history of American Politics

i really don't understand that statement. the press love mccain. they're still infatuated from the full access he gave them when he ran in 2000. i swear, if obama fucked up as much as mccain does (and trust me, he does, but maybe you don't know about it because the press doesn't hammer away on it) he'd be crucified in the media. it's like the whole gore/bush race. people simply expected a hell of a lot less from bush, and when he rose slightly above it, they praised him.

please tell me how the media is 'in the bag' for obama. i mean, they were accusing him of a flipflop on iraq even when he hadn't changed his position at all. or that whole 'michelle reffering to whitey' flap. *cough cough jvo* wtf ever came of that? the media are absolutely ready to pounce on the slightest obama mistake... while ignoring the vast ones mccain makes in seemingly every appearance.

[zero2056]

please tell me how the media is 'in the bag' for obama. i mean, they were accusing him of a flipflop on iraq even when he hadn't changed his position at all. or that whole 'michelle reffering to whitey' flap. *cough cough jvo* wtf ever came of that? the media are absolutely ready to pounce on the slightest obama mistake... while ignoring the vast ones mccain makes in seemingly every appearance.


I realize you're for your guy Obama which is great, but you seriously believe that?

NBC, CBS, ABC = Pro Lefty
Fox = Pro Rightey
CNN = Whoever's show is on the station at the moment

[slam]

i don't watch tv news. i guess i can't say how they treat the candidates.

what, we don't count print media? internet journalists?

[JVO]

it's early yet... endless war..

I totally agree with all of that, but still his polling numbers did not go up and they should have. Even Obama staffers are admitting that they were expecting a bigger and longer bump from the trip than what they received. Obama received a 3% bump for 2 days and then the polling numbers went back to where they were before the trip. He did look Presidential and it was nice to actually be proud of an American speaking to the world, but still it doesn't appear that it really helped him in anyway. And of course all McCain is going to do is say, "Sure you went to the Middle East, only after I chastised you for 3 months about how you hadn't gone in over 900 days"

i don't disagree that debates will be important... but mccain barely skirted through against a bunch of fools in the republican ones...

Again, I don't think that McCain skirted against a bunch of fools. Rudi and Mitt Romney were both incredibly formidable candidates. I don't agree with the idea that just because you are a Republican you are necessarily a fool. Romney is a billionaire who somehow managed to win the Governor seat in the most Liberal state in the Union while at the same time belonging to a religious group that, in some people's eyes, are still seen as a bunch of wackos. Rudi was America's mayor, turned around a city that when he started as Mayor was one of the most crime ridden disgusting cities in the world, and he turned it into the capital of the world. He completely changed times square and eliminated the blocks of porn shops and crack dealers. Oh and BTW he handled himself during 9/11 better than any other politician in the U.S. including the President and he was actually in the firing line. Even Huckabee turned out to be a formidable candidate. Time magazine ranked him as one of the 5 best governors in the U.S. and his folksy charm coupled with his real connection with Evangelicals made him a very powerful candidate. His one-liners are still the major highlights from most of the Republican debates.

From watching the debates, McCain completely owned Mitt Romney. He made him look like a rude rich school boy who pretends that he knows everything, but really has no experience to back up his fancy words. I would imagine he will use this same strategy in the debates against Obama. Also you have to figure that John McCain has 20 times more experience in debates than Obama does. I know McCain hasn’t looked that great recently, but if he can bring back the McCain of the Republican debates, he will be a tough person to debate. Particularly since he has been governing at a National level since Barack Obama was in College.

obama doesn't want to have more debates against mccain because he doesn't want to give mccain more press coverage. people love obama. they flock in droves to see him speak. why share that limelight with mccain? why draw an extra 30,000 people to see his opponent?...

Obama doesn't want to debate because he knows it can only hurt him. Remember this election doesn't have anything to do with McCain. It is only a referendum on Obama.



i really don't understand that statement. the press love mccain.

please tell me how the media is 'in the bag' for obama.

I don’t know how much you watch the network news or the cable news outlets, but they are completely in the bag for Obama. Even Hillary supporters within your party did nothing but complain about how much the mainstream media loves Obama. Clinton’s chief political strategist (I can’t remember his name) appeared on FOX News and said that FN was the only mainstream news station who covered the Democratic Primaries fairly. I mean just think about that, a Clinton big wig congratulating FOXNEWS for being the only station that was fair to Hillary Clinton. Just go back and read that article that I posted from the San Fran Chronicle yesterday, women are still pissed off because of the way the media completely fawned over Obama. Also remember that SNL skit where they had a debate between Clinton and Obama and the media completely threw themselves at Obama while virtually ignoring Clinton? I heard a stat the other day that for every 15 times MSNBC mentions Obama, they mention McCain once. And when they do mention McCain it is only to talk about him in comparison to Barack Obama. Conservatives call him the Profit and Jesus and the Messiah because that is completely the way the media is treating him, and even Hillary Clinton supporters say that is true. The only thing Conservatives and Hillary Clinton have ever agreed on in their 20 year history together is that the media LOVES Barack Obama.

It is true that the media did love McCain when he was the most Liberal of the Republican running for President, but as soon as he got the nomination the New York Times, who had previously endorsed him for the Republican nod, immediately ran a smear story that wasn’t even true and had no support for it. It was so bad they later had to recant major parts of the article just to save face.

Even on Chris Matthews last night they raised the topic of whether the media’s love affair with Barack Obama is actually hurting him (which btw I think it is). If the news programs themselves are admitting they have a love affair with Obama, I am not sure how you can disagree.

[zero2056]

i don't watch tv news. i guess i can't say how they treat the candidates.

what, we don't count print media? internet journalists?

You may not watch it, but the majority of America does. If the three biggest TV news companies are doing everything they can to promote one candidate over another, methinks there might be a problem there.

The problem with tossing in print journalism is that its too regionalized. You turn on the 6 pm national TV news, and everyone across America is watching the same program. Turn on CNN, same for everyone in the country. Depending on where you live, your local newspaper may or may not be biased. I read the WSJ every day and I think they do a good job of giving equal time to both candidates, but I don't think everyone reads the WSJ. They typically each get a page of opinion articles written about both sides in each paper. You could toss in the NYT and the Washington Post, but the NYT is definitely liberal and I'm not sure where the Washington Post falls.

Internet news is sketchy at best, in my opinion. I never know what I can and can't trust. I can make a website and call myself a news reporter and nobody would know any different.

Whether there's any truth to it or not, I feel like someone has done their homework before they go onto TV or put a printed news article in a paper, for fear of being proved wrong. Something more permanent about it.

[zero2056]

http://www.theonion.com/content/news/time_publishes_definitive_obama

"I'm not quite sure how he intends to turn around the economy or get us out of Iraq," said California resident Geoff Mills, an ardent Obama supporter who read the Time story. "But any man who prefers his steak cooked medium-rare has my vote."

This article from the Onion seemed to fit in nicely with the discussion :lol:

[slam]

Again, I don't think that McCain skirted against a bunch of fools. Rudi and Mitt Romney were both incredibly formidable candidates. I don't agree with the idea that just because you are a Republican you are necessarily a fool.

not all republicans are fools. scalia's an evil f'ing genius. george will could crush me with his mind. rudi and mitt acted like fools during the debates. yeah, they both have some good credentials, but i watched those debates, and rudi could only say *blah blah 9-11 blah blah 9-11*, while mitt seemed to change his answers every three seconds. i still don't give any credit to being able to outshine those turds. maybe mccain will be impressive during the debates, but he's not a constitutional lawyer like obama.

I don’t know how much you watch the network news or the cable news outlets, but they are completely in the bag for Obama.

well, i don't watch any news tv (now with less actual news!), but according to this study, the bias has swung the other way:

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,2066363,full.story

During the evening news, the majority of statements from reporters and anchors on all three networks are neutral, the center found. And when network news people ventured opinions in recent weeks, 28% of the statements were positive for Obama and 72% negative.

Network reporting also tilted against McCain, but far less dramatically, with 43% of the statements positive and 57% negative, according to the Washington-based media center.